Debabrata Das

New Delhi, June 26 Even as the alarm bells are ringing over the poor progress of the South-West monsoon so far, there is very little evidence to show that lack of rains in June translates into a lower kharif harvest.

In fact, a comparison of rainfall statistics for June and the eventual production of kharif foodgrains during the last five years reveal very weak co-relation between the two. This comes out clearly in the accompanying table, which shows kharif grain output from 2004-05 to 2008-08 and the percentage deviation in rainfall for June from the ‘normal’ long period average.

The two years, 2005-06 and 2006-07, saw a rainfall deficiency of minus 49 per cent and minus 59 per cent respectively during June. Yet, it turns out that production during these two years were better than in 2004-05, which witnessed excellent monsoon activity in June.

Likewise, the June rains in 2008-09 were better than in the previous year, but the country still ended up producing less grain. So what does this imply? Well, a bad June does not portend disaster, just as good rains in June do not guarantee a bumper crop.

Incidentally, it might be pointed out that in 2002 – the last big drought year – the country actually registered a 4 per cent surplus rainfall in June! What changed the picture completely was the 49 per cent rainfall deficit in July, which the India Meteorological Department (IMD) termed the “worst (July) in the history of recorded observations”.

What one needs to look ahead is how the monsoon shapes up in July, which is the month most crucial for agricultural operations. June accounts for only 18 per cent of the seasonal rainfall. Though the sowing for the kharif crops begins in mid-June, a delay can be made up by a good rainfall in July. A good July rainfall this year has become critical not only because it will allow sowing in the areas which missed out in June, but also because it is in this month that the seeds would become saplings and to grow they would need ample supply of water.

In such a scenario, a good kharif output depends on whether seeds are planted utilising whatever soil moisture is present in the first half of the monsoon season. Even if the monsoon revives by mid-July there will be enough time for the crops to yield a good output.

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