Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Sept 8 Sunday’s ‘low’ over northwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal has weakened into an upper air cyclonic circulation but is seen triggering isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and the west coast.

The presence of a counterpart cyclonic circulation over Madhya Maharashtra and the offshore trough running down from south Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast would ensure rains break out over entire peninsula.

In the northwest, a prevailing western disturbance moved away to the northeast, but is being trailed by another system located to North Pakistan on Monday.

The latter is expected to cross in to the northwest India in due course.

Helpful cyclonic circulations persisted over Punjab and west Rajasthan and adjoining south Pakistan.

Meanwhile, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has maintained its outlook for a strong ‘low’ (likely reaching depression strength) taking shape over the Bay in a week’s time, signalling more rain for the north peninsula.

The causative circulation is likely to emerge from the South China Sea to drop anchor over the Andaman Sea before moving west-northwest and picking some strength in the process.

It is shown to cross land over the Andhra-Orissa coast and keep travelling in a west-northwest direction headed into Gujarat and adjoining Rajasthan.

The ensuing rains would spread out over the north peninsula as well as along the west coast.

In doing so, the Bay system would have braved a strong typhoon materialising to the northeast of Philippines and moving further away into north-central Pacific Ocean.

Normally, northeast-moving Pacific typhoons work to the disadvantage of the Indian monsoon system.

An update by the Met Centre, Chennai, said the 24 hours ending Monday morning saw vigorous monsoon conditions over North Interior Karnataka and active over Kerala.

Rainfall occurred at most places over Kerala, Coastal and North Interior Karnataka, at many places over Lakshadweep and Rayalaseema, and at a few places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, South Interior Karnataka and Telangana.

Isolated rainfall occurred over Tamil Nadu.

Forecast for the next two days said rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over Kerala, Lakshadweep, Andhra Pradesh, Coastal and South interior Karnataka and at a few places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and North Interior Karnataka.

A separate warning issued said isolated heavy to very heavy rain is likely over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and isolated heavy rain over Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and the Ghat areas of South Interior Karnataka.

In Maharashtra and Gujarat, the monsoon was vigorous over South Madhya Maharashtra and active over South Konkan-Goa. Rainfall occurred at many places over North Konkan and North Madhya Maharashtra, at a few places over Marathawada and at isolated places over Gujarat.

Forecast for the next two days said rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over Konkan-Goa, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada, at a few places over South Gujarat and Saurashtra and at isolated places over North Gujarat and Kutch.

Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely at isolated places in South Konkan-Goa and South Madhya Maharashtra during the next 24 hours.

Heavy rainfall likely to occur at isolated places in North Konkan, North Madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada during the same period.

Thunder squalls have been warned of at isolated places in all districts of Konkan-Goa, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada during the next 24 hours.

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