Date:13/08/2008 URL: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2008/08/13/stories/2008081350111100.htm

Back Rains batter Gujarat, west Maharashtra

Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Aug 12 Monday’s ‘low’ over east Madhya Pradesh has become less marked overnight, leaving behind a cyclonic circulation over northwest Madhya Pradesh and adjoining east Rajasthan. But this is not a comment on its rain-making ability, say meteorologists. The system has what it takes to keep doing what it knows best for at least three more days.

The monsoon let down torrents over Gujarat, Saurashtra, Kutch and the Konkan-Goa belt through Monday. Exceptionally heavy to very heavy rainfall was recorded over the Konkan, madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada.

Outlook for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers is likely over Konkan-Goa, Gujarat, madhya Maharashtra and at a few places over Marathawada. Fishermen have been advised to exercise caution in view of winds accelerating up to 50 km/hr off the Goa-Maharashtra coast.

In the rest of the peninsula, the monsoon was active over Karnataka and Kerala. Rainfall occurred at most places over coastal Karnataka and Kerala and at many places over interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep. Forecasts said rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at most places over coastal Karnataka and at many places over Kerala, Lakshadweep and south Interior Karnataka and at a few places over north interior Karnataka.

The Noida-based National Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting said that the monsoon trough may retreat to the Himalayan foothills from the weekend signalling weak monsoon conditions over central India and the northwest.

Various models discount possibility of another ‘low’ forming to pin the eastern end of the trough into the Bay.

In this manner, it will have no option but to emerge from the Bay and recline over land driving rains over east India and the North-East.

But this is also the time when the southeast coast, especially coastal and interior Tamil Nadu, gets some ‘monsoonal rain’ by other means.

This will come about as the adjoining southwest Bay comes to its own, free from the influence of frenetic activity all these days just to its north.

Outlook by most international models too supported this scenario.