Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Jan 17

Scattered rain/snowfall has been reported from Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh during the 24 hours ending Thursday morning as the underbelly of an incoming Southwest Asian snowstorm slammed into the western Himalayas.

The snow and rain will get driven up manifold as the moisture is wrung out of the system to the immediate west and southwest. Fairly widespread precipitation with isolated heavy fall is being forecast for the western Himalayan region during the next two days.

Expectedly, the scattered rain and thundershowers will spill over into the adjoining plains during the same period. An India Meteorological Department (IMD) outlook said that rain and snowfall are likely at many places over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand during the next two days.

In the plains, rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over north Rajasthan, west Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, north Haryana, Chandigarh, south Haryana and Delhi. Isolated rain/thundershowers will come to bear down on Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya as the northwesterlies push the rain footprint to the east. Going further forward, isolated rain/thundershowers are likely over the northern parts of east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim.

The minimum temperatures are above normal by 6-9°C over Rajasthan and 3-5°C over plains of northwest India, Saurashtra and Kutch in the wake of the western disturbance having steamed in, covering a wide swath of geography across the northwest border. A fall in minimum temperature is likely over Rajasthan, Saurashtra and Kutch as they dry up first as the disturbance moves to the east. No significant change in minimum temperature is likely over plains of northwest India during next two days as the disturbance would be active over these regions during the period.

According to the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), it’s not just the north and northwest being kept busy tackling the westerly disturbances, but the seas to both sides of the peninsula also are bracing to witness some activity.

While the southwest Bay of Bengal is shown to respond minimally to moisture influx from the southwest Pacific, an overarching trough in the southeast Arabian Sea along the west coast might throw up a `low’ and toss the same over land (west Madhya Pradesh).

The ECMWF has been consistent in projecting this non-seasonal posturing by the Arabian Sea. The prevailing westerlies-to-northwesterlies are forecast to push the `low’ further into central India and towards the east, setting the stage for some unsettled weather in the region.

On the other hand, the ‘Bay effect’ is pronouncedly more on Sri Lanka with some brief spin-off effect to south coastal Tamil Nadu.

© Copyright 2000 - 2009 The Hindu Business Line