Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Nov. 2 The Bay of Bengal continues to stay calm but that has not prevented tropical moisture from being transported in from the east and fanned all over the southern peninsula.

The outcome is that passing thunderstorms and showers will hold good over most part of the region till such time as the next monsoon ‘low’ brings some assertive order into the rain pattern.

This could take sometime, despite the fact that a cyclonic whirl has been persisting over the south Andaman Sea, the gateway for tropical moisture to pipe its way in. The broad seasonal trough covering the Bay is, however, seen persisting over the next few days.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) has forecast a strong ‘low’ in the Bay around November 12 off the Myanmar coast as a migrant circulation gets forced in from the South China Sea. Its likely path of movement in the Bay is expected to become clear over the next few days.

The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction has signalled an overall wet cover with varying intensity for the whole of the peninsula through the week ending November 9. But the activity will get confined within the peninsular tip during the following week.

This forecast does not seem to factor in the strong ‘low’ indicated by the ECMWF model. It merely signals a ‘blow-up’ off the Myanmar coast. But this eventuality would need to be confirmed.

Meanwhile, latest assessment by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology indicated that the La Nina event has become well established in the Pacific. The main characteristics are colder than average temperatures along the equator both on and below the surface, stronger than average trade winds and reduced cloudiness.

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