Date:06/12/2006 URL: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2006/12/06/stories/2006120602991200.htm

Back Vigil for Bay circulation extended

Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram , Dec 5

The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has extended by a day its vigil for an incoming feed from Typhoon Durian to show up over the Andaman Sea.

An update from the NCMRWF on Tuesday said the migrant circulation would set up a base in Indian territorial waters on Friday. A few weather models expected it to ride the crest of a larger easterly wave, though the NCMRWF maintained the outlook for a full fledged `low'.

Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com seemed to concur with Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the Department of Science and Technology who told Business Line on Monday that Durian would, for all practical purposes, drift in as an easterly wave.

Mr Andrews also agreed that the migrant circulation would revive northeast monsoon rains in the peninsula, but doubted prospects for its intensification (as a tropical depression). The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), too, agreed with this outlook.

DURIAN WEAKENING

"One open question is whether Durian will sustain tropical storm strength over the Gulf of Thailand to the Malay Peninsula. Once Durian has lost storm status, there likely will be a tropical wave traceable westward over the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal," Mr Andrews said.

The weakening of Durian is attributable to the inflow of drier air from East Asia, as well as the prevailing northeasterly flows over South China Sea and its immediate west, which steered the storm to a more southwesterly track.

The US Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre (FNMOC) has tagged it as `94B Invest' and put it under watch. But this is likely to travel west into the open Arabian Sea and may not impact mainland India, according to Dr Gupta.