Date:04/12/2006 URL: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2006/12/04/stories/2006120401190500.htm

Back Bay under watch as north braces for a chill

Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram , Dec. 3

The forecast for a brewing `low' in the Bay of Bengal is being maintained even as an approaching western disturbance is tipped to induce a cyclonic circulation creating violent weather in that part of the country.

Forecasters are keenly watching Typhoon Durian, currently traversing the South China Sea waters, to make an expected landfall over the Vietnamese/Cambodian coasts. Earlier, Durian had left a trail of destruction over the Philippine archipelago as it wound its way to the west.

DURIAN LANDFALL

The London-based Tropical Storm Risk Group bet Durian to make a landfall over Vietnam/Cambodia by Tuesday, weaken subsequently, and break apart. Torrential rain would seem to be a greater threat than destructive winds for Vietnam, says Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com.

It is just as well in the meantime that Durian will have sent in a drifter into the adjoining Bay of Bengal, according to consensus forecasts by various models. This will show up a `low' over the Andaman Sea by Thursday.

NO `FLARE-UP' SEEN

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts sticks to its prediction that this migrant `low' will continue to travel west in the Bay, priming itself for a landfall over the north Tamil Nadu/south coastal Andhra Pradesh coast by December 11.

But, significantly enough, it does not indicate any flare-up, at least going by the model forecasts it made on Sunday.

BUSY IN NORTH

Meanwhile, forecasters are being kept busy in the north of the country with the expected arrival of what looks like an `action-packed' western disturbance from across the international border.

The allusion is to an `active' westerly system that is strong enough to induce the formation of a cyclonic circulation in the system as it forays from the northwest into the country. This is the first of its kind during the season, and is expected to set off fairly widespread snowfall and rainfall.

CYCLONE PERCH

A forecast by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said that the system would start impacting the northwest from Sunday itself. The induced cyclonic circulation is set to form, as is its wont, over north Rajasthan.

The ensuing snowfall and rainfall will become firmly established over the hills in Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal for at least three days on a stretch. Scattered to fairly widespread showers are expected over Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and west Uttar Pradesh.

MERCURY TO DIP

Day temperatures are likely to fall, while night temperatures may creep up over northwest India, in what are typical conditions associated with the arrival of this type of a weather system.